Thoughts on Scottish Independence Referendum (II)

It’s been ten months since the EU referendum and Scotland has become the latest arena of speculation due to a new referendum on Scottish independence. It has been encouraged by the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon, who has called for a second referendum stating that the “circumstances since the EU referendum have change considerably”. 

Although it may be the Scottish people’s right to self-determination, the prospect of another referendum and a general election after the EU referendum (it is hard to keep track of the different elections around the world) it has become a difficult period for the electorate. In my opinion the question of Scottish Independence has been answered. It’s not due to the fact that I believe in the Union but rather that we cannot constantly have elections and referendums to solve every political problem that arises. Our current political system is a representative one, if we elect politicians to speak for us then they should use that trust we place in them to carry out our wishes.
With all this been said, it is clear that if the SNP have been elected on a mandate of obtaining independence for Scotland (from the Scottish people) it is there duty to try to obtain it. I will say again that I am for the Union and would prefer Scotland to remain within the Union. However, with that said, the previous referendum has settled the debate on independence. I believe therefore that Sturgeon and the SNP should make the case for an Independent Scotland to the British and in particular English electorate.

In order for Sturgeon to obtain another referendum from the UK Government, the British electorate as a whole must be convinced that not only Scotland would be better off outside the Union but the remaining Union would be better off too. Unfortunately for the SNP, I think the case for Scottish independence does not convince English voters, in part due to the SNP not presenting a case to the English electorate. If a case was presented to the English voter, myself included, we may change our minds and this will make it much more difficult for the UK Government to ignore the question of a second referendum if the English electorate is in favour of it.

At the moment, the SNP are further away from a second independence referendum as although many English voters feel that a second referendum should be given to Scotland; at present, it’s not the right time. The negotiations to leave the EU will take up to two years and we also have the delights of another election campaign from now until the 9^th June. Although it is difficult to see Scotland having another election.

Now you have had my opinion, and I make it clear that this is my opinion, I will now present to you the arguments for independence forwarded by the Scottish Government and the counter-argument presented by the UK Government after the EU referendum. 

The most important reason for the SNP in advocating independence has been the change of circumstances after the EU referendum. It was argued through 2014 that Scotland could only guarantee its place in the EU if it voted to remain in the UK. This has given the SNP a reason to now demand a new referendum on Scottish independence. It has also been argued alongside this that an independent Scotland can guarantee welfare state, as the increasing austerity policies adopted by the Conservative Government has put the NHS, social care, benefits and much more in jeopardy of being cut.

These continue to be points in which the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon press for a second referendum, and to some extent these arguments have weight behind them.

The debate surrounding independence in 2014 had many focuses, but the Scottish economy was one of the most important and widely debated and discussed. Although, in the last three years, the economic circumstances have change considerable. Oil in the North Sea, and in particular the price of oil, was seen by the Scottish Nationalists as being an important part of their economic policies upon independence. But the oil prices since 2014 have dramatically decreased, which would not provide enough revenue to support the independent state budget (also subsidies that are provided by London would be removed upon independence).

Trade was also a big part of the economic argument and with 63 percent of Scotland’s exports going to the UK, an independent Scotland would find it difficult to continue trading unabated. Finally it was unclear in 2014, and still is now, whether Scotland would be able to use the British pound and if it was allowed, it would still be under in the influence of London because the Bank of England would have control.

Although I have presented my opinion on this matter, it is up to you to decide for yourself if Scotland should be given another referendum or whether it should be denied for the foreseeable future.