General Election 2017: Reaction and Analysis

After months and months of denying that she would call a snap General Election, Mrs May has finally succumbed to - what many have suggested as - the temptation to widen her majority in the Commons. A shrewd move for some, mere political game-play for others and even, for some people, an attempt to establish a one-party state for many years. But whatever reasons are put forward to explain Mrs May’s rationale, the election is happening on June 8^th whether we like it or not.

For what it’s worth, I do agree that an election is in the best interests of Britain. Since the 2015 election, it is quite obvious that the political landscape has changed massively. Most people assumed (very, very wrongly) that Britain would vote to remain in the EU, that Scotland would not be walking down the path of another independence referendum for at least another generation (remember that pledge Mr Salmond?) and that Northern Ireland would continue to be stable (well for Northern Ireland’s standards!).

However, all that has quite clearly changed. Britain did vote to leave the EU, Scotland are on the road to independence once again and Northern Ireland has no executive (which is not normal, even for Northern Ireland’s standards!). That is not to mention the issues going on in the wider world and what Britain’s role should be in helping to solve those issues. All that leads me to believe that things have quite clearly fundamentally changed since 2015 and that an election is necessary to show where the majority of the country stands on these issues.

So, some of the key questions now are, firstly who will be the winner(s)? Secondly, who will subsequently be the loser(s)? And thirdly, what will Britain look like on the morning of June 9^th?

The answer to the first question is more than likely the Conservative Party and Mrs May. We have seen in both the recent EU referendum and the election of Donald Trump in the USA that polls cannot always be trusted. But realistically, it is looking like it will be a Tory win with a fairly big majority. Some have even suggested it could be 100 plus. The Conservatives seem to currently be on the right side of the debate on Brexit, on providing stable leadership and well on pretty much everything else bar the NHS. That usually is a recipe for victory.

What is also important to point out is that ‘voter fatigue’ will also play a part in the forthcoming election. Voters would have gone to the polls only a month previous for Mayoral (in some parts of the UK) and Council elections. The EU referendum was only last June and we had a General Election the year before that. For voters in Scotland, you can also throw in the independence referendum in 2014. That is a lot of voting, even for people who love politics. But low turnouts usually favour the incumbent government as there just isn’t enough votes for the other parties to obtain the swings they need to win. Therefore, with all those reasons added up, you’d expect (and I say expect as no one can be certain) that it should be a comfortable Tory win.

But, on the subject of ‘winners’ in the election, it may be worth mentioning the Liberal Democrats too. They are clearly the party of ‘remain’ and are passionate about the EU and the single market. That will surely resonate with Tory and Labour remain voters. Also, when people typically look at the choice between the two main party leaders, as one of them will be PM, they may decide they like neither Mrs May or My Corbyn and that Mr Farron is the best of the rest. So, I would expect to see the Liberals pick up some seats in strong remain areas. Could it be the beginning of a Liberal revival?

The answer to the second question is more than likely the Labour Party and Mr Corbyn. Again, that is based purely on the latest polls and also that Labour seem to be on the wrong side of the debate on Brexit, on providing stable leadership and well on pretty much everything else bar the NHS. But there is also the big issue of Jeremy Corbyn. The purpose of this article is not to comment on Mr Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour Party. But it is clear from the vote of no confidence in him from the Parliamentary Labour Party last summer that they don’t have much confidence in him as leader. You would expect (and again you cannot be certain) that the lack of confidence in him from the PLP will filter through to voters. The common consensus is that if Labour come out of the election having not lost many seats, it will be a good night. That shouldn’t be the attitude of a government in waiting. Those reasons are what will probably make them the biggest losers of the election and with that, you would also have to expect that Mr Corbyn’s time as leader will be up.

But Labour may not be the only losers. UKIP have looked a spent force since the EU referendum and despite them now having no MPs; the Brexit on offer from Mrs May’s government could persuade many of the millions who voted for UKIP last time around to vote for Mrs May to ensure she continues with that plan. I would expect UKIP to still have no MPs come 9^th June. However, if Mr Farage stands in South Thanet, I don’t think anyone would be shocked to see him win and continue revelling in his media attention.

I also would put the SNP into the potential ‘loser’s’ category too. They currently hold 56 out of the 59 seats in Scotland and don’t stand in any other parts of the UK. The ceiling has almost been reached. Yes, if they take the remaining three or even hold what they have, then clearly they wouldn’t have lost. But, if that doesn’t happen and the Tories (banging the Unionist drum) take even a few seats off them, that will severely damage their attempts to hold another independence referendum. The stakes are high for the SNP and it is imperative for them that they have a good night to keep the independence bandwagon rolling.

So, with all that said, it looks like a win for the ‘right’ and a loss for the ‘left’. I repeat again, the polls have been wrong before and could be again. The mood of the country may have been hugely mis-judged by Mrs May. There is also a lot of time for things to go wrong for her between now and June 8^th.  But you have to say, right now, that looks unlikely and a Tory win is probable.

The answer to the last question then is that the country will look very blue on the morning of June 9^th when the map is shown of who voted what. The country will be set for a ‘hard’ exit from the EU and Mrs May will be free to pass pretty much any domestic legislation she pleases. That will be great news for some, absolutely horrific news for others. But I would assume the biggest feeling on 9^th June from most people, no matter which way they voted, will be sheer relief it’s all over.

What is certain though is that it will be a very interesting 6-7 weeks for Britain and a period in which the path the country is set to take for, at least a generation, will be set in stone for all to see.