Last Wednesday Jean Claude Juncker announced to Europe, and the world, his future plans for the EU. What does this mean for Europe and for Brexit? To get a rounded view of Juncker’s plan and the ramifications this may have on Europe, I have looked at several source. However I must confess I am no closer to finding the answers to this questions.
For anything on the EU Nigel Farage is the first port of call. Although a decisive character, Farage has a vast knowledge of the EU and presents many questions and arguments that need to be answered. Farage has present the Juncker Plan as an undemocratic attempt to expand the powers of the EU, and more important for Farage, the EU Commission and the person at its helm.
Farage’s response to the Juncker’s Plan are expected, as the most well known euroskeptic in the country. Farage has presented the EU as a great monolith similar to that of the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
But what is the Juncker’s Plan?
The European Fund for Strategic Investment or the Juncker Plan proposes to join the European Investment Bank and the European Commission with the aim of mobilising €315 billion (increased to €500 billion by 2020) of private investment over the next three years. In his state of the union address Juncker further outlined the future of the EU with further reforms. These reforms include joining the two presidencies of the Commission and the Council into one. Further reforms such as the European Citizens Initiative, European political party reform, creation of a European Finance Minister (with various powers over the Eurozone), and the creation of a European Army.
What does this mean for Europe and the Brexit Negotiations?
The Juncker Plan appears to be a step closer in creating a United States of Europe. With plans to create a single president that will “steer the ship in the right direction”, the visible recognition of domestic political parties European affiliations, and the creation of a European Army. Juncker has taken steps to create a Federalised Europe.
In relation to Brexit Juncker has made it clear that Brexit will not be an easy ride for all concerned. To this effect The Guardian has stated that the Plan “was an ambitious bid for deeper integration. No more Europe à la carte, special deals and opt-outs. Under Juncker’s vision, joining the Euro currency and passport-free Schengen Zone would be the norm”. Thus making many of the leave campaign arguments (in the referendum) difficult to furfil and the difference between soft and hard Brexit.
The plans set forth by Juncker are of no surprise to many due to the sluggish growth within the the Eurozone. In fact according to the German Finance Minister Schaeuble, the plans are in line with current German policy toward the EU and the Eurozone. The need for a single president, a Eurozone wide finance minister, and a single budge are, in my in my mind, a plan to save the Eurozone and reverse the effects of slow growth and huge debts throughout the Eurozone and the periphery.
By further integrating Europe into a full fledged political and economic union, Juncker’s Plan gives Europe an opportunity to reinvigorate European economies. However it is still clear that Southern Europe still has massive debts (especially Italy and Greece), the unification of the Eurozone budget gives the ECB breathing space and presents the EU with new ways of combating the duel problems of growth and debt (not to mention the equally important problems of unemployment and decline in real wages especially in Southern Europe).
The bold plans sent out by Juncker, in my opinion, will not solve Europe’s economic problems or prevent the collapse of the Euro. Rather it will just prolong its demise and the eventual collapse of the EU as a political and economic project. Whatever you political persuasion recognition of the continual economic challenges facing Europe are too big to overcome within the current frame work and with the plans set forth by Juncker. With the continued rise of euroskeptism within Europe, there may not be the political will of the member states to follow this plan and thus save the Eurozone. For a pessimist I’m quite optimistic about Europe solving its economic problems. However I question whether such solutions will arise from an ever deepening of the political and economic union that is the EU.
