General Election 2017: The Leaders (Part 2) – The Contenders for Coalition?

Following on from 'The Leaders (Part 1) – The Contenders for PM' the five ‘smaller’ parties took part in the ITV leaders debate on Thursday 18^th May which, at the time, seemed a fairly pointless exercise. As usual, none of them will be fighting for the keys to Number 10 but it also seemed that none of the parties had a chance of being a potential coalition partner in waiting. Also, added to this, the fact that the polls in the build up to the debate showed the Tories to be on course for a huge win and therefore in no need of a coalition partner; there was a fairly sombre mood around the whole thing.

However, a YouGov poll published in the Sunday Times on Sunday (21^st May) may actually show that the debate was an important part of the campaign. The poll puts the Conservatives on 44% and Labour now on 35% after both parties released their manifestos. Whilst it is still clear the Greens, Plaid Cymru and UKIP will not be coalition partners to either the Tories or Labour after the election, rather interestingly the SNP or the Liberal Democrats could be. Therefore, what seemed like a fairly pointless debate, featuring both the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon and the Liberal Democrats leader Tim Farron, could actually turn out to be very important. It has given the electorate an insight into both party’s policies that may become part of government policy after 8^th June.

From a personal point of view, I thought it was refreshing to see Sturgeon talk about policies other than Scottish independence. I was surprised that at times during the debate she seemed to be talking as much to the UK wide electorate as to the Scottish electorate. Her performance showed how successfully the SNP have transitioned from a one-party issue into a party capable of leading a government and delivering an agenda that spans from domestic to foreign policies. Putting aside views on a potential second independence referendum, if the SNP do form part of a coalition government after the election, it will be interesting to see if they continue along the same path in Westminster as they have in Scotland and of what benefit that will be to the UK as a whole. If they are deemed as successful partners in any potential coalition, then it may well help soften resistance in other parts of the UK towards Scottish independence. A point we have already discussed in a previous article on Scottish independence.

In contrast, Sturgeon’s polished performance demonstrated just how far UKIP and its leader Paul Nuttall have to come. Forgetting the fact he called Plaid’s leader Leanne Wood ‘Natalie’ TWICE, he struggled to successfully advocate UKIP’s domestic and foreign policies. He repeatedly talked about Brexit and issues surrounding the UK’s withdrawal from the bloc. He repeatedly fell back on the negatives of immigration, especially free ‘uncontrolled’ movement from the EU. Whilst these are issues that are undoubtedly important to the UK electorate and a big reason why the Leave campaign won, UKIP seem to be forgetting that we had a referendum last June on the single issue of EU membership and that a general election is not a one issue vote (it hasn’t been since arguably the two elections of 1910). With May increasingly adopting UKIP’s tough stance on the EU and with performances like the one witnessed last Thursday evening, it is difficult to see UKIP retaining anywhere near the 4 million plus votes it got in 2015. Nuttall states that UKIP will have been successful if they are ‘still on the pitch’ after the election. It remains to be seen whether there will still be a Party after June 8^th.

Tim Farron’s performance was steady. He would have been relieved to have not been questioned on the personal views he holds due to his religious beliefs. However, as arguably the biggest UK wide party leader at the debate, he struggled to convey a consistent message on anything but Brexit. The Liberals have argued pretty much since the EU referendum for a second vote and that message was very clear once again; you would expect that the Liberals would only enter into any potential coalition on the promise of a second referendum. However, other than many personal stories, there wasn’t many other individual Liberal policies that could give an insight into what policies Farron and the Liberals would attempt to take into what would be a second coalition government in just 7 years.

The leaders of Plaid and the Greens had a fantastic platform to advocate their policies and both performed fairly well. However, they were very much the junior players between the other leaders and probably wouldn’t have recruited many new voters to their respective parties after the debate.

So, from what initially seemed like a fairly pointless exercise has now provided the electorate with an insight into both SNP and Liberal policies. Either one, or indeed both, may be part of a coalition government after June 8^th. You’d expect that the Tories would not enter into a coalition with either due to fundamental disagreements on the EU and the future of the Union and would therefore prefer to run either a minority government or be a large and vocal opposition. But it may be that Labour and its voters have been impressed with the performances of both leaders and are now more comfortable with the idea of a coalition headed by Labour.

The last week has shown that nothing can ever be taken for granted in politics. Maybe Theresa May is now regretting calling a general election after all…