‘Is the UK’s difficulty Scotland’s opportunity?’

Nicola Sturgeon has announced plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish Independence sometime between Autumn 2018 and Spring 2019. The SNP leader is arguing that the ‘material change’ threshold that was in the SNP’s manifesto in 2016 has been reached due to the UK’s vote to exit the EU.

The similarities of the situation in Scotland can be related to the situation in Ireland a century ago. In 1917 Britain was still locked in a war that many said would have ended by Christmas 1914 and there seemed no immediate prospect of victory. Despite many in Ireland signing up to fight for King and Country, there were a handful who stayed at home. The saying ‘England’s difficulty is Ireland’s opportunity’ was used to try and add respectability to the Easter rising in 1916 which ultimately failed and was greeted with initial condemnation from the majority of the Irish public. However, replace Ireland for Scotland and that saying still resonates very strongly a century on.

A few weeks before the EU referendum, Ms Sturgeon was asked whether if the UK voted to leave the EU but Scotland voted to remain would that strengthen the chance of a second referendum on Scotland’s position in the UK. Her response was ‘if we find ourselves, having voted to stay in the EU, being taken out against our will, I think there will be many people - including people who voted No in 2014 - who would say the only way to guarantee our EU membership is to be independent’. The fact that the SNP campaigned for the UK to remain in the EU, for some, could slightly pour scorn on the idea that a vote for Brexit was good a thing for Scottish nationalism. However, it has certainly presented an opportunity that Ms Sturgeon seems very keen not to pass up.

Putting aside personal feelings on Brexit, as Mrs May has repeatedly said ‘Brexit means Brexit’ and anyone who believes in democracy would agree the vote on June 23^rd must be respected, surely a United Kingdom standing strongly together at its stubborn yet resolutely determined best would go a good way to ensuring we secure the best terms for our exit. However, instead of standing stubbornly and resolutely behind Westminster at a time of great uncertainly and difficulty for the UK, Ms Sturgeon and senior SNP politicians are seemingly using the UK’s difficulty as Scotland’s opportunity to finally achieve what the SNP have dreamt of since their birth in 1934.

The arguments for and against Scottish Independence are fascinating and the 2014 referendum, despite being played out against a divisive backdrop, was a refreshing renewal of UK constitutional democracy that we haven’t really seen since the late 1990s. However, as is the case with a minority of the crudely yet accurately dubbed ‘remoaners’, surely the SNP cannot expect that the Scottish or the UK public will allow them to carry on holding referendum after referendum until they get the result they desire. If this is what politics and maybe even life in general has become, surely we can all think of better things we can do over and over again until we get the result we want?! Boris Johnson quite aptly said that ‘you can’t have neverendums’.

Whilst many would say, and quite rightly so, that the Scottish people should never be shunned or banned from voicing their opinion on the future of their country, surely that must be done against the correct backdrop as it was in 2014. Surely, even the most ardent SNP supporter would concede that a vote when the SNP have suggested would be damaging for the UK in the Brexit negotiations and unfortunately that would also mean damaging for Scotland.

Surely the correct time to re-visit a hugely important constitutional question would be when the UK and Scotland are in a time of relative stability. Unfortunately, the Brexit vote means that it is unlikely that stability will be present for a good while.

Many in the UK would not be-grudge the Scottish people another say on their future, despite the last one only been in 2014, which is in stark contrast of the feelings towards Irish nationalism a century ago. However, as the saying that was used to justify the Easter rising in Dublin just over a century, it very much feels as though the SNP are using the UK’s difficulty as Scotland’s opportunity and that tactic will alienate many in the UK, including in Scotland, from having the appetite to re-visit the Scottish question once again in the foreseeable future.

Mrs May has set herself on a hugely dangerous collision course with her ‘now is not the time’ response to the SNP’s calls. However, as the Prime Minister for the UK, I think it’s a response that is correct and will win the approval of many in every corner of the union.